“The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.” (The keys correctly predicted that Trump would lose in 2020.)

Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (false)

No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (RFK Jr. currently polling at 15% in the primary so probably true)

Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (true)

No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (true, although if West runs all the way to election day and earns five percent of the vote, this will be false (Democrats will also completely lose their fucking shit if this happens and Biden loses))

Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (true…for now)

Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (false I think?)

Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (false)

No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (true I guess, but this could change rapidly)

No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. hunter

No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan + Ukraine so false)

Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (false)

Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (false for sleepy joe)

Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (false, Trump is the most charismatic Republican since Reagan)

I count eight falses. It’s not lookin’ good for joe. One of those falses is maybe debatable but the others probably aren’t going to change from here to election day. We could have Trump winning the presidency from a prison cell and pardoning himself lol.