You did not calculate that right. What I wrote comes out to 1/2816, which is fully 8 orders more likely than your initial estimate. And this number is still probably a lot lower than the true probability.
There are A LOT of independent lines of evidence that point very strongly to the conclusion that humans are causing a massively disruptive change to the earth’s climate. This heatwave is not the nail in the coffin, it’s just (small) data point. Trying to oversell it like you are only serves to entrench deniers who will assume that you are making an intentionally misleading argument.
You did not calculate that right. What I wrote comes out to 1/2816, which is fully 8 orders more likely than your initial estimate. And this number is still probably a lot lower than the true probability.
There are A LOT of independent lines of evidence that point very strongly to the conclusion that humans are causing a massively disruptive change to the earth’s climate. This heatwave is not the nail in the coffin, it’s just (small) data point. Trying to oversell it like you are only serves to entrench deniers who will assume that you are making an intentionally misleading argument.