The odds of 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 have doubled to 2.3%, but that's not surprising given that it's still early days.

We recently reported that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1% chance of striking Earth in 2032. Now astronomers have revised their estimate to 2.3% for a direct strike on Earth. This might sound a little scary, but don’t worry, this is normal when there are initial asteroid discoveries and the orbital uncertainty is still wide. Over time, better measurements will be taken, and the chances of a dangerous impact will almost certainly go down.

  • Coelacanth
    1·
    13 days ago

    Good news:

    (…) and even if the absolute worst-case scenario were to occur, 2024 YR4 isn’t large enough to cause an extinction event.

    Bad news:

    We’re doing well at creating the extinction event all by ourselves, no asteroid needed.