I’m not interested in what the dictionary says or a textbook definition I’m interested in your personal distinction between the two ideas. How do you decide to put an idea in one category versus the other? I’m not interested in the abstract concepts like ‘objective truth’ I want to know how it works in real life for you.
That’s one factor; objective (or Bayesian) probability is the other.
Like, there are too many things that might be true, or that might come to pass, for me to consider all of them at once. So I filter out most of them by dissociating myself from the worlds in which they’re true: saying “I don’t believe that will happen” isn’t saying it’s impossible, it’s saying “I don’t recognize myself in the person that would happen to”.
But the more you commit your sense of self to worlds that are tenuous or impossible, the greater the likelihood that you end up in a real situation where you no longer recognize yourself—and then you face an identity crisis.