geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it’s compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They’re not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren’t prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won’t be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it’s monogamous.
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they’re courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
…no. And their opposition to the law wasn’t transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone’s trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn’t like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.
They won’t. Also they’d fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.
Hell they aren’t because SMEs aren’t. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They’re going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That’s giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I’m confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn’t about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?
Or maybe they just hide their transphobia behind a thin veil of reasonable-sounding, legal arguments.
They will use that topic for diversion in a pinch. It’s mostly meaningless to them, but they’ll happily jump at the chance to play off unemployed stoners against the hard-working middle class.
That’s genuinely somehing for a judge to decide. And it’s usually years before unconstitutional laws are revoked.
Merz is also, genuinely, a bigot. In all possible respects: toward women, toward foreigners, toward gender and sexual minorities, towards non-Christians, …
And there are also all manner of attempts to divide non-Germans within Germany, one of these is:
Don’t forget that all the rhetoric of the past 3 months, from the right-wing parties in particular, but also from SPD, and even the Greens with their “deportations to Afghanistan and Syria, sure, but only to a rational degree” ideas have already spooked people living here. We’re also bound to see right-wing attacks rise further.
Merz and CxU are also not paragons of rationality. Everybody knew, and they must have known that they would only strengthen the Afd if they went all in on “bad foreigners” as the primary campaign topic. Really, 100% predictable. But they did. They used a terror attack to start the discussion and executed just as Merz had wanted to for 20 years, in fact. And they indeed lost 4.5% since the polls in November and the election last weekend, much of it to Afd. Primo job!
One of the interests of that lobby is actually undercutting pay those employees. That’s significantly easier when your employees don’t know about their rights, when they’re not working legally, etc.
You mentioned SMEs. SMEs are not that important to CxU, even less to Merz. But they look good as figureheads, so they get some breadcrumbs, and lots of mentions in speeches. And they’re told to grow.
That’s paranoia, not analysis, also, the CDU is too big to keep such a conspiracy secret. It’d rather look like the AfD’s attempts to not look fascist. Also, they’d be facing opposition from the churches to… capture a sentiment that doesn’t really exist outside of a couple of rabid people noone will tear away from the AfD, anyway? To discriminate against one of the first groups of people the Nazis persecuted?
True, still those topics are a dime a dozen and first they’d have to actually desire a ruckus. Right now is the absolute worst time for that, they want unity and stability to a) face the existing geopolitical threats and b) look better than the traffic light and c) don’t know whether they realise that but to weaken the AfD, which thrives on democratic parties bickering.
And there was internal opposition! But CDU does as CDU does once Merz was elected leader, not so much because Merkel’s wing would be weak but because the middle wing wanted to balance the scales, the rest of the party kept silent to only moderating slightly. They do that kind of thing all the time, shifting the external perception of the party by putting different people on the front. They might not be deep strategists but they know what strategy is and they have the internal discipline to follow through on it.
Side note did you notice Söder very much emphasising social stuff in the Union faction press conference. Fuck me if in the end it’s the Bavarians causing a resurgence in social housing projects etc, actually combat the core reasons why the AfD surged. Maybe even sell it as a grand “Bismarckian” thing, ignore the AfD, say it’s to keep the icky left in check.
How about Merz claiming he “understands” Trump’s only-two-genders exective order, then? Is that paranoia too or are there reasonable explanations for that? I don’t see Merz become a champion of civil liberties anytime soon.
That is not an issue. Most recently, Söder basically told churches to stop supporting the “wrong” causes if they still want state money. Julia Klöckner left a church board, because it wasn’t right-wing enough for her anymore.
I also understand it. I don’t support it, in fact I oppose it, but I do understand it. If there’s one thing that’s sure right now is that Merz, a lifelong, staunch, Atlanticist, feels betrayed by America and Trump is on the top of his shitlist.
Yeah but by that measure we have to declare the whole of the SPD fascist. Even worse, thinking about nothing but civil liberties you suddenly start to respect the FDP so I’d advise against that, always keep all the struggles in mind or they trick you.
Look I’m not trying to argue that Merz is a paragon of virtue. What I’m arguing is that
a) a lot of things are way more important to him than the things you are worried about and
b) there’s checks on his behaviour, from inside the conservative population. They know who did and who did not murder Lübcke, who agitated against him (among others, Steinbach) which is why right now nobody, literally nobody, is backing Merz as Lübcke’s widow is ripping into him for his “where was Antifa” comment: The Antifa was there, it was Merz and the other paleoconservative CDU people who weren’t. This idea that he can do what he wants is falling for the conservative’s apparent unity while in reality it’s a cesspit of backroom deals and backstabbing.
You’re splitting hairs here. This is clearly not the kind of understanding that Merz meant. During one of the chancelor duels/quadrels, there even was a question related to either the topic of gay marriage or to trans acceptance and Merz couldn’t for the life of him give an answer that would affirm the right of gay/trans people as normal humans. Whereas Scholz right next to him easily could which brings us to the next point…
… in fact, FDP hasn’t done good on that topic. SPD and Greens did way better at fighting for civil liberties than FDP which has gone all out in its embrace of economic liberalism along with fairly conservative social policies. There’s a reason why abortions are still a criminal offence in Germany and lots of other things, and that reason is FDP and Marco Buschmann.