Highlights

• Plastic abundance prediction in the oceans using probability distribution model.

• Global and regional plastic abundances can be predicted from plastic emissions.

• 32 % of plastic emission should be reduced for zero additional pollution.

• Our model assesses various emission scenarios.

Among all the concerns, plastic waste management should be prioritized. Reducing the emissions of macroplastic waste from rivers into the ocean is the most important solution that humans can manage. We must note that ocean plastics have inertia, so microplastics will continue to increase even if we suddenly stop increasing land-based plastic emissions because of the legacy plastics accumulated on land.